The race to fill an open seat in Maryland’s 6th Congressional District is too close to call, according to an independent poll released Thursday.
Republican Neil Parrott, a former state delegate, holds a slim 2-point lead over Democratic rival April McClain Delaney, the wife of former Rep. John Delaney, well within the margin of error. Pollster Patrick Gonzales, who conducted the poll, said the campaign could be decided by one county.
“In my opinion, this thing is going down to Frederick,” Gonzales said.
Gonzales surveyed 317 registered voters in Montgomery, Frederick, Washington, Allegany and Garrett Counties who said they are likely to vote in November. The small sample poll, conducted between Aug. 24-30, has a margin of error of plus or minus 5.6%.
Earlier this week, Gonzales released polls detailing bumps in job approval for Gov. Wes Moore (D) and Vice President Kamala Harris. A poll released Wednesday looked at the slim lead for Prince George’s County Executive Angela Alsobrooks (D) in her race against former Gov. Larry Hogan (R) for the U.S. Senate.
According to the survey released Thursday, Parrott leads Delaney 41%-39% with 20% undecided. The support for each candidate comes from different areas.
Delaney holds a 42-point lead on Parrott in Montgomery County. Parrott holds a 60-point advantage over Delaney in what Gonzales referred to as the “WAG” area of Maryland — the western Maryland counties of Washington, Allegany and Garrett.
Both candidates hold commanding leads among voters in their respective parties. Parrott holds a 3-point advantage — 34%-31% — among independents.
“What’s really making the difference is that Parrott is snatching 17% of Democratic voters. Delaney is only getting 7% of Republicans,” said Gonzales.
“That is a tight, tight race,” he said.
That leaves Frederick County.
“No matter what, this election will, in my opinion, be decided in Frederick County,” he said.
Four in 10 voters in the district reside in Frederick County.
Currently, Delaney leads Parrott 44%-29% in Frederick County, according to the poll.
But with two months to go, 51% of voters said they do not know who Delaney is.
“That is a challenge, and it is also an opportunity. You’re going to introduce yourself to people with no personal preconceptions,” Gonzales said. “If I were Delaney, I’d be OK with that — especially if I am already getting this reflexive party vote.”
But it also leaves open the potential for Parrott or others to negatively define Delaney before Election Day.
The race’s close nature may also entice some outside groups to put money into the district to swing control of Congress, Gonzales said.
“I have to believe I’m not the only one seeing this,” he said. “I’ve got to believe that those in the position to direct monies and stuff like that, they’re all taking a look at District 6 in Maryland.
“Congress is plus four seats for the GOP. There are close districts all over the country that they’re dealing with. But I’ll tell you one thing, Maryland’s 6th Congressional District ought to be right near the top of the list for both parties,” he said.
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